SNBET: Picks - Pundits, touts, success rates & paying for bet picks

Free picks aren't a dime a dozen, they're less than a penny a dozen.  From respected sports pundits, to twitter "betting experts", to those that actually sell picks online, but will give you some for free as a trial - if you want to find free sports betting picks, you won't have trouble finding them. We take a moment to highlight the issues surrounding free betting picks, and the sources that provide them.

What do the pickers know that you don't? 

Nothing.  Those that make their picks and disseminate them know nothing more than you know, they just have opinions. If they were actually certain of their information, do you think they would be sharing it with the world, which would move the odds against their picks? Not a chance. Anyone in the world that might have any kind of inside information and is able to act upon it will be keeping the information to themselves.

So if there is no actual edge held by the pick-makers, what is the purpose of picks?

There are really only two reasons to make picks.  Reason one, the person making the pick just needs to create content for themselves or the media outlet that they are working for.  They are likely promoting various legal Ontario betting sites as part of their work, and the picks are meant to spur action on your part to take advantage of their "wisdom".

Reason two, a "tout" that is hoping to sell you some picks down the road.  Here's how it works:  The tout, or pick seller is constantly publishing free picks, via email subscription or other tree trial method.  As people in the world discover them and give the free trial a try, a person like you might throw a little money down on the first set of free picks.  If 2 of 3 or 3 of 3 of the picks hit, bingo, that person might be convinced to pay for the next week's picks.  Of course, next week the same tout might get 1 of 3 or none of 3 correct, but the tout's good luck of the first week was enough to make the person on the free trial think that the tout knew something special, when the tout really just got lucky. 

If the tout's initial free picks don't hit, the person on the free trial simply moves on, realizing during the free period that the tout knows as much as they do.  The tout has made a business out of selling nothing for something, by getting lucky, and turning that good luck during the trial period into sales of future picks.  Don't fall for it.  

Why a published success rate does not matter on picks

If a tout or a TV pundit publishes their success rate as a percentage, this should be an immediate red flag to you. The only thing that matters in the success of the bettor, is the bankroll that a bettor starts with, and where it is now.

Example: Imagine you are following a soccer program which is sponsored by a betting company. The program hosts and guests make their picks as part of the promotion.  Most of these people tend to go with the favourites, especially those that are heavy favourites.  In cases like this, do you know how high a win percentage a tout or bettor would need to have in order to stay in profit?

Here's a small example. If you had a $200 bankroll, and you kept to a system of $10 betting units, and you tended to bet only on heavy favourites, where the odds are usually around 1.50 or -200 (or often even lower), you would need a 70% win percentage or higher to stay in profit.

Of course, this is example is not perfect: Betting odds vary and betting units or stake levels might change, but this example just shows you that "win percentage" means absolutely nothing in terms of successful betting.  In the above example, if you had a 60% win percentage, you'd be down 10% on your bankroll.

In the end, just know not to put any stock in win percentages.  If a pundit or tout has actually documented all of their bets thoroughly and they list their absolute dollar-value position over their initial bankroll, that could be another story.  But in such a case, can you truly trust that they have documented all their bets and have not "revised" their record?

Free betting picks bottom line 

You're not going to "take the house down" with picks made for free on some sports broadcast or via some tout.  They are trying to make money off of you, whether by pushing you toward their sponsor, or by just selling you picks that are based in no actual knowledge beyond what you might already know.  Don't waste your time on them.  If an analyst makes a good point about the game that you want to bet upon, and you agree with them, that's your shared opinion. If you wish to bet it - fine, but keep it fun.  If you are just looking to "get one over" on the sportsbooks by getting a perceived edge through these pundits or touts, you might not want to be betting in general.  It's probably not going to end well if this is the approach taken.